Back in September things were a bit different in the Idaho 1st Congressional District Republican Primary race. All eyes were on Rep Ken Roberts and Vaughn Ward and who would be the best candidate to take on Walt Minnick and win. I interviewed both Roberts and Ward and asked my readers, “if they had to vote today, who they would vote for?”
Vaughn Ward overwhelmingly won that poll with 90% of the vote. Now that poll, like all ICB, polls are not scientific and really only show the attitudes of my readers. I can’t say that all who voted were even from the 1st congressional district but it was fun to watch.
My analysis back in September was this, “It's simple, Roberts sounds like a typical politician with the same old one-liners we all have heard before. I warned Roberts about this problem back on August 12th, I quote "For this conservative, you will have to give me a reason to boot Minnick other than just having an (R) next to your name. Don't be afraid to shake it up. Give me some substance not the usual talking points that I have heard a billion times. Otherwise don't waste my time. I will keep an eye on Roberts and Vaughn Ward, the other challenger, and hope for the best, a reason to give them my support". It seems Ward got the message but Roberts didn't and ICB readers noticed. Although, ICB agreed with most all of Roberts answers to our Q&A exchange on August 20th, it all sounded like a stump speech. It was too safe. ICB threw Roberts a bone to go on the offensive and show why he should take over Minnick’s seat and all he came back with was that Minnick voted to confirm Nancy Pelosi. That's not taking chances…. Come on! Say something of substance, go out on a limb, and take a chance. If you give the standard cookie cutter answer it's a yawn. I know Roberts has been in politics a long time, the problem is he sounds like it. That will not work this coming election cycle. Again, ICB agrees with 99% of what Roberts says. The problem is how he says it. In what will no doubt be a very emotional and passionate election it just will not work. If Roberts does not figure this out he will have a very hard time.
And he did ultimately drop out of the race. Some have written me saying I helped push Roberts out and that I was even a “plant” for the Ward camp. I hope we put that to rest. Like I have said before, my motivation is simply to support the best person who can beat Walt Minnick. I was maybe not so gentle in trying to get Roberts to step it up and show that he was ready for the fight.
I also wrote, “The number of page hits last week when ICB posted Wards Q&A compared to the Roberts week was triple. Not sure why. The longer we are up, the more the word gets around about us but, it has to be more than that. Word got out that in the Q&A, Ward gave the people what they were looking for, a new, fresh, smart, exchange, just enough political jargon with some personality mixed in. People told their friends to log in and read it. His story is compelling, he is a hero, (Marine, CIA.) He gave very specific answers with numbers and statistics. When given the Minnick bone, Ward not only took the opportunity but he ran a marathon around Minnick. Slam dunk! When asked to tell the people something about him that they might not know, ICB found his answer moving and surprisingly personal. That is his appeal. It was like a friend telling a friend a story. Not political mumbo jumbo. Fresh, new, exciting to see and hear.
Ward and Roberts are both Conservative Republicans with many of the same views on issues but, they are very different candidates. If this were a boxing match ICB has to give this round to Vaughn Ward. Roberts isn't on the ropes yet, it will be fun to watch.”
Four months later this is a very different race. Roberts is out, Ward is still going strong, and Raul Labrador is in. And my friends, Labrador is (with all due respect to Ken Roberts) no Roberts. Labrador got hammered hard the day he officially announced his candidacy on his immigration stance. Regardless if you agree with his stance or not, one cannot deny he has shown he IS a fighter.
Since Roberts bowed out I interviewed Labrador and even posted his answers side by side to similar questions I asked Ward. I then decided to run a new poll, if the 1st congressional republican primary election were today, who would you vote for?”
Labrador wins with 641 votes and 59%, Ward 430 Votes and 39%, the rest either vote other or undecided.
Again this is in no way a scientific poll. I don’t track the voters and do not know the demographics, I again can’t even guarantee the voters are all from the 1st congressional district, (sounds a little like holding an open primary but, that’s a topic for another day) Why would Ward win with 90% of the vote in September against Roberts and loose to Labrador today with 39% of the vote?
ICB thinks there are many factors in play. If memory serves me right the total votes in the September poll were under 200. In this latest poll there was 1,080. It only makes sense, ICB was a new web page and readership has grown. Could be that the Labrador camp got the word out about the poll to more of their supporters than the Ward camp? It could be said that Ward is new to politics and Labrador has a history and record behind him but, didn’t Ken Roberts? Labrador and Roberts are both politicians but very different politicians. Roberts just didn’t seem up for the fight, Labrador does but, Vaughn Ward is certainly not afraid of the fight.
ICB found it interesting while talking with folks at the Governor’s Ball who told me, “I will not support Raul, Vaughn is the right man for the job.” And others who said, “If Raul wants the job it’s his”.
We also must remember that this race is far from over, this is just a snap shot of toady. Its politics and things change. The people who read my page and voted are those engaged in politics daily. Ward has raised a lot of money and Raul working it as well. The radio, tv, and newspaper ads have not even started. Those not actively engaged aren’t even thinking about it yet and in the end they will probably make a huge impact on who the winner is. Raul has a lot to do if he is to keep up with what is sure to be an aggressive media blitz by Ward.
One thing is clear, or unclear, in what seemed to be a very easy decision in September has become foggy at best. For certain, we must defeat Walt Minnick in November and pick the person who can do that. In the latest poll, of the 1,080 votes, only 9 voters said they were unsure or would pick another. Unlike ICB many have already decided.
Ward is not on the ropes like Roberts was but, he lost this round in a new fight.
ICB
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